Figure 7.

The trade-off between systematic and random errors in modelling. The number of input parameters is an indicator of model complexity and the sum of output prediction errors denotes the accuracy of the model with a particular parameter combination. The dotted line is the total random error introduced by badly estimated input parameter values, the dashed line is the total systematic error that comes from using a poor model with too few input parameters and the solid line is the combined overall error. See the text for more explanations. Note that sloppy parameters can become stiff and vice versa if the underlying model logic is changed to accommodate new parameters. All parameters left of the vertical grey line behave in the same simple linear way as depicted in (A).