|Population and disease parameters used in the model|
|Aggregated parameters||Standard value||Variation in sensitivity analysis||Variation in literature|
|Badger mortality (yearly)|
|Badger cubs||30 – 53% e|
|Male a||47% (seasonal) h||Grouped d||50 – 65% g|
|Female a||41% (seasonal) h||Grouped d||50 – 65% g|
|Older than 1year||Cub mortality reduced by 20% to balance badger density|
|Male a||16% (seasonal) h||Grouped d||30% g|
|Female a||12% (seasonal) h||Grouped d||24% g|
|Fox mortality (yearly)||36 – 53% f|
|Cubs male a||53% (seasonal) i||Grouped d||50 – 65% g|
|Cubs female a||51% (seasonal) i||Grouped d||50 – 65% g|
|Older than 1year|
|Male a||48% (seasonal) i||Grouped d||40 – 60% g|
|Female a||45% (seasonal) i||Grouped d||40 – 60% g|
|Fox litter size|
|Cubs||4.53 (± 1.54) i||--|
|Older than 1 year||4.76 (± 1.53) i||--|
|Fox sex ratio (m:f)||0.55 i||--|
|Fox: Probability of breeding|
|Older than 1 year||0.77 i||--|
|Badger litter size||2.94 (± 0.94) h||--|
|Badger sex ratio (m:f)||0.5 h||--|
|Badger: Probability of breeding|
|1st female||0.74 h||--|
|2nd female||0.37 h||--|
|3rd female||0.3 h||--|
|Dispersal months||October – March i||--|
|Dispersal Distance (range)|
|Males||0.6 – 30.8 (density dependent) i||--|
|Females||0.6 – 12.6 i||--|
|Badger infection probability h|
|Within group||0.89 h||0.8 – 1.0 b||20% variation|
|Between groups||0.8 – 1.2||20% variation|
|Male - females||0.55 h||Grouped c|
|Same sex||0.55 h||Grouped c|
|Adult - juveniles||0.19 h||Grouped c|
|Fox infection probability|
|Within home range||0.999 j||0.8 – 1||20% variation b|
|Between home ranges||0.8 - 1.1||20% variation b|
|Juveniles in summer||0.329 j||Grouped c|
|Males to females in winter||0.912 j||Grouped c|
|All other contacts in winter||0.514 j||Grouped c|
|In spring||0.122 j||Grouped c|
|In summer||0.499 j||Grouped c|
|In autumn||0.255 j||Grouped c|
|Fox-Badger cross infection||0.04 k||0.03 –0.05||20% variation|
|Badger prob. becoming infectious (rabid)||0.42 h||0.3 – 0.5||20% variation|
|Fox prob. becoming infectious (rabid)||0.42 i||Grouped d|
a Relative seasonality of rates preserved.
b 20% variation intended but limited because parameter would be beyond possible range.
c Varied as group proportional to rate of group parameter.
d Varied as group. Absolute variation range indicated for group parameter.
e Intended 30 – 70% but limitations due to population extinction.
f Intended 30 – 70% but limitations due to minimal seasonal mortality rate and population extinction.
h(mortality differs between the first two months of life and older).
i(mortality differs between years one and older, and varies in each month).
k see text for derivation of value.
Singer and Smith
Singer and Smith BMC Veterinary Research 2012 8:79 doi:10.1186/1746-6148-8-79