Table 1

Population and disease parameters used in the model
Aggregated parameters Standard value Variation in sensitivity analysis Variation in literature
Badger mortality (yearly)
Badger cubs 30 – 53% e
Male a 47% (seasonal) h Grouped d 50 – 65% g
Female a 41% (seasonal) h Grouped d 50 – 65% g
Older than 1year Cub mortality reduced by 20% to balance badger density
Male a 16% (seasonal) h Grouped d 30% g
Female a 12% (seasonal) h Grouped d 24% g
Fox mortality (yearly) 36 – 53% f
Cubs male a 53% (seasonal) i Grouped d 50 – 65% g
Cubs female a 51% (seasonal) i Grouped d 50 – 65% g
Older than 1year
Male a 48% (seasonal) i Grouped d 40 – 60% g
Female a 45% (seasonal) i Grouped d 40 – 60% g
Fox litter size
Cubs 4.53 (± 1.54) i --
Older than 1 year 4.76 (± 1.53) i --
Fox sex ratio (m:f) 0.55 i --
Fox: Probability of breeding
Cubs 0.66 i --
Older than 1 year 0.77 i --
Badger litter size 2.94 (± 0.94) h --
Badger sex ratio (m:f) 0.5 h --
Badger: Probability of breeding
1st female 0.74 h --
2nd female 0.37 h --
3rd female 0.3 h --
Fox dispersal
Dispersal months October – March i --
Dispersal Distance (range)
Males 0.6 – 30.8 (density dependent) i --
Females 0.6 – 12.6 i --
Badger infection probability h
Within group 0.89 h 0.8 – 1.0 b 20% variation
Between groups 0.8 – 1.2 20% variation
Male - females 0.55 h Grouped c
Same sex 0.55 h Grouped c
Adult - juveniles 0.19 h Grouped c
Fox infection probability
Within home range 0.999 j 0.8 – 1 20% variation b
Between home ranges 0.8 - 1.1 20% variation b
Juveniles in summer 0.329 j Grouped c
Males to females in winter 0.912 j Grouped c
All other contacts in winter 0.514 j Grouped c
In spring 0.122 j Grouped c
In summer 0.499 j Grouped c
In autumn 0.255 j Grouped c
Fox-Badger cross infection 0.04 k 0.03 –0.05 20% variation
Badger prob. becoming infectious (rabid) 0.42 h 0.3 – 0.5 20% variation
Fox prob. becoming infectious (rabid) 0.42 i Grouped d

a Relative seasonality of rates preserved.

b 20% variation intended but limited because parameter would be beyond possible range.

c Varied as group proportional to rate of group parameter.

d Varied as group. Absolute variation range indicated for group parameter.

e Intended 30 – 70% but limitations due to population extinction.

f Intended 30 – 70% but limitations due to minimal seasonal mortality rate and population extinction.

g[44].

h[8](mortality differs between the first two months of life and older).

i[26](mortality differs between years one and older, and varies in each month).

j[27].

k see text for derivation of value.

Singer and Smith

Singer and Smith BMC Veterinary Research 2012 8:79   doi:10.1186/1746-6148-8-79

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