Table 3

Prevalence of events for each level of risk.

Events

Low-risk CHD

Score = 0-4

n = 413

Intermediate-risk

CHD Score = 5-7

n = 161

High-risk

CHD Score = 8-11

n = 87

n

%

(CI 95%)

n

%

(CI 95%)

n

%

(CI 95%)

Coronary Heart Disease

Observed

2

0.5%

(0.0 to 1.7)

20

12.4%

(7.8 to 18.5)

63

72.4%

(61.8 to 81.5)

Prevalence from bootstrapping*

0.7 (0.6)

14.6 (10)

69.4 (16)

Validation cohort (N = 774) †

15/289

5.2%

(3.0 to 8.4)

40/327

12.2%

(8.9 to 16.3)

59/158

37.3%

(29.8 to 45.4)

Acute myocardial infarction

1

0.2%

(0 to1.3)

1

0.6%

(0 to 3.4)

2

2.3%

(0.3 to 8.1)

Unstable angina

0

0%

(0 to 0.9)

2

1.2%

(0.2 to 4.4)

4

4.6%

(1.3 to 11.4)

Deaths

Overall

4

1.0%

(0.3 to 2.5)

11

6.8%

(3.5 to 11.9)

9

10.3%

(4.8 to 18.7)

CVD

0

0%

(0 to 0.9)

2

1.2%

(0.2 to 4.4)

9

10.3%

(4.8 to 8.7)

CHD

0

0%

(0 to 0.9)

2

1.2%

(0.2 to 4.4)

7

8.0%

(3.3 to 15.9)

Mean and SD of predicted values according to the risk category (bootstrapping).

* Mean prevalence in each risk category (with SD) given by the 300 bootstrap rules (%)

† Data drawn from the German cohort (Marburg study)

CHD = coronary heart disease; CVD = cardio-vascular disease

Gencer et al. BMC Medicine 2010 8:9   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-8-9