The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease

Martin Camitz¹^,2^,3^,4 and Fredrik Liljeros³

¹Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Solna, Sweden

²Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Solna, Sweden

³Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

⁴Theoretical Biological Physics, Department of Physics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

author email corresponding author email

BMC Medicine 2006, 4:32doi:10.1186/1741-7015-4-32


Published:	14 December 2006

Additional files

Additional File 1:

Sample animations. The animations in wmf format provided with this manuscript show different single realizations or possible scenario of an unrestricted epidemic where one initial infected person is located in Stockholm. They are provided for interest only and should not be seen as contributing results, which require the combined analysis of many more realizations. The first file, Stockholm.wmf, shows a common scenario of spread throughout the country from Stockholm.

Format: WMV Size: 1MB Download file

Additional File 2:

Sample animations. The animations in wmf format provided with this manuscript show different single realizations or possible scenario of an unrestricted epidemic where one initial infected person is located in Stockholm. They are provided for interest only and should not be seen as contributing results, which require the combined analysis of many more realizations. Uppsala.wmf clearly demonstrates the benefits of stochastic modeling in that the epicenter is spontaneously translocated to Uppsala, north of Stockholm, and the epidemic is hence delayed. This is quite a plausible event that would not be captured in deterministic models.

Format: WMV Size: 1MB Download file

Additional File 3:

Sample animations. The animations in wmf format provided with this manuscript show different single realizations or possible scenario of an unrestricted epidemic where one initial infected person is located in Stockholm. They are provided for interest only and should not be seen as contributing results, which require the combined analysis of many more realizations. Dies_out.wmf shows the common event of the epidemic not catching on but rather dying out within a few days. All these realizations have been aborted after 60 days.

Format: WMV Size: 42KB Download file

Additional File 4:

Sample animations. The animations in wmf format provided with this manuscript show different single realizations or possible scenario of an unrestricted epidemic where one initial infected person is located in Stockholm. They are provided for interest only and should not be seen as contributing results, which require the combined analysis of many more realizations. Biggy.wmf is similar to the first but was not aborted until the epidemic has peaked and died out due to depletion of susceptible individuals.

Format: WMV Size: 3.6MB Download file