Table 3 |
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|
Reference scenario for a flu pandemic after one initial case (no intervention). Estimates are cumulative numbers per 100 inhabitants, unless otherwise specified. |
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|
Outcomes |
Outbreak n = 114 |
All simulations n = 200 |
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|
|
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|
Mean |
Minimum-Maximum |
Mean |
|
|
|
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|
Infections |
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|
Total |
46.8 |
42.3–50.5 |
26.7 |
|
Children (0–18 years)a |
76.5 |
71.9–79.7 |
43.6 |
|
Adults (19–65 years) a |
39.9 |
34.8–44.0 |
22.8 |
|
Elderly (>65 years) a |
25.3 |
20.8–30.1 |
14.4 |
|
Physician visits |
31.2 |
28.0–33.7 |
17.8 |
|
Hospital admissions |
1.74 |
1.30–2.30 |
0.99 |
|
Deaths |
0.36 |
0.17–0.55 |
0.21 |
|
Lost workdaysb |
137 |
118–150 |
78 |
|
|
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|
aPer 100 individuals of a given age bPer 100 working adults |
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|
Carrat et al. BMC Medicine 2006 4:26 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-4-26 |
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