Table 3

Reference scenario for a flu pandemic after one initial case (no intervention). Estimates are cumulative numbers per 100 inhabitants, unless otherwise specified.

Outcomes
Outbreak
n = 114
All simulations
n = 200



Mean
Minimum-Maximum
Mean

Infections



     Total
46.8
42.3–50.5
26.7
          Children (0–18 years)a
76.5
71.9–79.7
43.6
          Adults (19–65 years) a
39.9
34.8–44.0
22.8
          Elderly (>65 years) a
25.3
20.8–30.1
14.4
Physician visits
31.2
28.0–33.7
17.8
Hospital admissions
1.74
1.30–2.30
0.99
Deaths
0.36
0.17–0.55
0.21
Lost workdaysb
137
118–150
78

aPer 100 individuals of a given age

bPer 100 working adults

Carrat et al. BMC Medicine 2006 4:26   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-4-26