Table 3

Reference scenario for a flu pandemic after one initial case (no intervention). Estimates are cumulative numbers per 100 inhabitants, unless otherwise specified.

Outcomes

Outbreak

n = 114

All simulations

n = 200


Mean

Minimum-Maximum

Mean


Infections

Total

46.8

42.3–50.5

26.7

Children (0–18 years)a

76.5

71.9–79.7

43.6

Adults (19–65 years) a

39.9

34.8–44.0

22.8

Elderly (>65 years) a

25.3

20.8–30.1

14.4

Physician visits

31.2

28.0–33.7

17.8

Hospital admissions

1.74

1.30–2.30

0.99

Deaths

0.36

0.17–0.55

0.21

Lost workdaysb

137

118–150

78


aPer 100 individuals of a given age

bPer 100 working adults

Carrat et al. BMC Medicine 2006 4:26   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-4-26

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