Simulation of the reference scenario for a flu pandemic (no intervention). The top figure describes the distribution of the numbers of secondary cases following introduction of a single infected individual into the population (200 simulations), and the bottom figure describes the infection curves of simulated outbreaks. The bold line is the average of the simulated outbreaks.
Carrat et al. BMC Medicine 2006 4:26 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-4-26