Table 3

Relative risk of biopsy detected cancer compared to the 25 year-risk of clinical prostate cancer endpoints
PSA (ng/ml) PCPT (repeat screening) ERSPC, Rotterdam (initial PSA test)
Clinical diagnosis Distant metastasis Cancer-specific mortality Clinical diagnosis Distant metastasis Cancer-specific mortality
<1.0 2.7 (1.9, 4.2) 21.6 (9.6, 69.5) 64.9 (18.2, 72.9) - - -
0.5 2.7 (1.8, 4.5) 38.0 (15.2, 192.3) 153.4 (48.2, 219.7) - - -
1.0 2.8 (2.3, 3.5) 14.5 (9.7, 27.2) 28.8 (15.4, 92.1) - - -
2.0 1.6 (1.5, 2.0) 4.7 (4.2, 6.1) 5.7 (5.1, 7.5) - - -
3.0 1.3 (1.1, 1.5) 3.4 (2.6, 4.0) 4.0 (3.0, 4.7) 0.9 (0.5, 1.4) 2.3 (1.2, 3.6) 2.8 (1.4, 4.2)
4.0 1.2 (0.8, 1.3) 2.7 (1.8, 3.2) 3.2 (2.0, 3.9) 0.9 (0.7, 1.1) 2.2 (1.5, 2.6) 2.6 (1.6, 3.1)
5.0 1.1 (0.7, 1.2) 2.3 (1.3, 2.8) 2.7 (1.5, 3.4) 1.0 (0.7, 1.1) 2.2 (1.3, 2.6) 2.6 (1.4, 3.1)
7.5 0.9 (0.4, 1.1) 1.7 (0.8, 2.1) 2.0 (0.8, 2.7) 1.1 (0.6, 1.3) 2.0 (1.1, 2.4) 2.4 (1.1, 3.0)
10.0 0.8 (0.3, 1.0) 1.3 (0.5, 1.8) 1.6 (0.5, 2.3) 1.1 (0.5, 1.3) 1.9 (1.0, 2.4) 2.3 (1.0, 2.9)

The data compare an unscreened Swedish cohort (MPP) with two screened cohorts (PCPT and ERSPC) by PSA level at age 60.

Data are given as percent risk with 95% confidence interval for two screened cohorts separately. Data are not given for PSA <3 ng/ml in the ERSPC cohort as biopsy was restricted to men with elevated PSA. ERSPC, European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer; PCPT, Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial; PSA, prostate specific antigen.

Vickers et al.

Vickers et al. BMC Medicine 2014 12:26   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-12-26

Open Data