Table 2

Absolute risk of biopsy detected cancer compared to the 25 year-risk of clinical prostate cancer endpoints
PSA (ng/ml) Clinical diagnosis Distant metastasis Cancer-specific mortality Biopsy detected cancer (PCPT) Biopsy detected cancer (ERSPC, Rotterdam)
<1.0 4.5 (2.9, 6.1) 0.6 (<0.1, 1.2) 0.2 (<0.1, 0.6) 12.2 (10.1, 14.6) -
0.5 3.8 (2.2, 5.4) 0.3 (0.1, 0.6) 0.1 (<0.1, 0.2) 10.1 (8.2, 11.7) -
1.0 6.1 (5.0, 7.3) 1.2 (0.6, 1.7) 0.6 (0.2, 1.1) 16.9 (15.8, 18.2) -
2.0 13.1 (11.2, 14.2) 4.6 (3.6, 5.1) 3.8 (2.9, 4.2) 21.5 (20.2, 23.0) -
3.0 16.8 (15.3, 20.3) 6.6 (5.6, 8.4) 5.5 (4.8, 7.3) 22.2 (20.5, 23.9) 15.4 (8.1, 23.6)
4.0 19.6 (17.8, 26.9) 8.6 (7.3, 12.4) 7.2 (6.1, 11.3) 23.2 (20.3, 25.4) 18.6 (16.3, 20.8)
5.0 21.9 (19.6, 32.9) 10.3 (8.7, 16.4) 8.6 (7.1, 15.2) 23.5 (19.5, 26.5) 22.1 (20.3, 23.6)
7.5 28.2 (24.0, 49.7) 14.9 (12.2, 27.2) 12.4 (10.0, 25.9) 24.6 (16.8, 30.2) 29.8 (27.4, 31.6)
10.0 33.6 (27.9, 65.0) 19.1 (15.4, 37.4) 15.9 (12.4, 36.0) 25.6 (13.1, 33.9) 36.1 (32.9, 39.1)

The data compare an unscreened Swedish cohort (MPP) with two screened cohorts (PCPT and ERSPC) by PSA level at age 60.

Data are given as percent risk with 95% confidence interval. Data are not given for PSA <3 ng ml in the ERSPC cohort as biopsy was restricted to men with elevated PSA. ERSPC, European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer; MPP, Malmo Preventive Program; PCPT, Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial; PSA, prostate specific antigen.

Vickers et al.

Vickers et al. BMC Medicine 2014 12:26   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-12-26

Open Data