Association between anti-CSP antibody titre and protection. (a,b,c) Estimated dose–response curves from equation (2) for the association between anti-CSP antibody titre CSP and vaccine efficacy against infection V (the probability that an infection is prevented by RTS,S induced responses) for infants (<3 months), children (>3 months and <5 years), and adults (>18 years). The yellow shaded region denotes the 95% credible interval. The grey histograms denote the observed distribution of each trial participant’s average anti-CSP titre during the first year of follow-up. (d) Comparison of observed (solid lines) and simulated (dashed lines) efficacy against infection from phase 2 trials. (e) Comparison of observed (solid lines) and simulated (dashed lines) efficacy against clinical malaria. The range of the solid lines represents the 95% confidence intervals of vaccine efficacy observed in phase 2 trials. The dashed lines represent the 95% range due to stochastic variation in simulated vaccine efficacy in cohorts of equal size to the original trial using the model with posterior median parameter estimates. CSP, circumsporozoite protein.
White et al. BMC Medicine 2014 12:117 doi:10.1186/s12916-014-0117-2