Comparison of prior and posterior distributions for the reproduction number, R, associated with the A/H7N9 outbreak in Zhejiang (top) and Shanghai (bottom), using the sequential Bayesian SEIR estimation method. Sequentially obtained posterior distributions are based on data up to 15 April, immediately prior to the first closure of live bird markets, and up to 20 April, two weeks into the intervention period. We assume a serial interval of six days (latent period k-1 = 3 days and infectious period γ-1 = 3 days). The initial prior for R is a normal distribution left-truncated at 0 and centered at 0.2 (SD = 0.2). SEIR, susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed.
Chowell et al. BMC Medicine 2013 11:214 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-11-214