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standard / ## Figure 3.
Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood (MCML) method used to estimate the transmission potential
of the A/H1N1 pandemic. (A) Schematic representation of the invasion dynamics of an emerging infectious disease
from the seed subpopulation (red patch) to the neighboring subpopulations connected
by means of mobility. The blue color code refers to the arrival time of the first
infectious individual. Links of different width represent mobility connections characterized
by different mobility flows. (B) Flow chart representing the steps that compose the Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood
(MCML) method. First, for each point in the parameter space, we ran 2,000 stochastic
realizations, all with the same initial conditions. Second, for each run, we recorded
the arrival times in the countries under study. Third, we compared the probability
distribution built on the simulated arrival times with the empirically observed arrival
times for each country. Finally, we evaluated the likelihood function to find its
maximum value, corresponding to the set of parameters that best fits the data.
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