Peak timing: effect of interventions by antiviral treatment. Peak weeks of the epidemic activity in the reference stochastic forecast output (SFO) (gray) and in the antiviral scenario (red), for a set of countries in the northern hemisphere. The 95% reference ranges of the simulated peak week were obtained by analysis of 2,000 stochastic realizations of the model for three different values of the seasonal rescaling factor, αmin: 0.6, 0.65, and 0.7.
Tizzoni et al. BMC Medicine 2012 10:165 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-10-165