Cumulative attack rate: effect of vaccination campaigns and pre-exposure immunity. (A) Final vaccine uptake as a function of the mass vaccination starting date for the countries of the northern hemisphere (reported in Table 2). (B) Relative reduction of the final epidemic size in the reference stochastic forecast output (SFO) coupled with mass vaccination campaigns, with respect to the reference SFO, as a function of the final vaccine uptake. (C) Relative reduction of the final epidemic size in the pre-exposure immunity SFO coupled with vaccination campaigns, with respect to the reference SFO, as a function of the final uptake. The relative reduction of the epidemic size was calculated as the relative reduction of the maximum of the 95% reference range, obtained from 2,000 stochastic realizations, in the reference SFO set. In all SFO sets, we assumed the proportion of asymptomatic infections, pa, to be 33%.
Tizzoni et al. BMC Medicine 2012 10:165 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-10-165