Open Access Research article

Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

Michele Tizzoni1, Paolo Bajardi12, Chiara Poletto13, José J Ramasco4, Duygu Balcan1, Bruno Gonçalves5, Nicola Perra6, Vittoria Colizza378 and Alessandro Vespignani689*

Author Affiliations

1 Computational Epidemiology Laboratory, Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI), Torino, Italy

2 Department of Veterinary Sciences, University of Torino, Italy

3 INSERM, U707, Paris, France

4 Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Palma de Mallorca, Spain

5 Centre de Physique Théorique (CNRS UMR 6207), Marseille, France

6 Department of Health Sciences and College of Computer and Information Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston MA 02115 USA

7 UPMC Université Paris 06, Faculté de Médecine Pierre et Marie Curie, UMR S 707, Paris, France

8 Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI), Torino, Italy

9 Institute for Quantitative Social Sciences at Harvard University, Cambridge MA, 02138 USA

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BMC Medicine 2012, 10:165  doi:10.1186/1741-7015-10-165

Published: 13 December 2012

Additional files

Additional file 1:

Real-time numerical forecasts of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm. Supporting Information. List of data sources and sensitivity analyses on model's structure and epidemic parameters.

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