Effect of contact-network structure on influenza epidemics. The classic stochastic SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) model was tailored to the epidemiology of influenza, based on a latent period of 1.5 days, an infectious period of 3 days, and fixed transmission probability per contact, simulated using two different contact networks: 1) a small-world contact network based on the model of Watts and Strogatz , with an average degree of 4 and disorder parameter (p) of 0.1 in a population of 1,000 individuals (left panels) and 2) in a random network model with an average degree of 4 (right panels) with the same population size. Histograms show the distribution of outbreak sizes for both network topologies when everything else is kept fixed. Epidemic realizations are shown in blue, while the red solid line curve corresponds to the average of the stochastic realizations that resulted in epidemics.
Chowell et al. BMC Medicine 2012 10:159 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-10-159