Table 3

Future prediction of Cost of illness (COI)
Model Item 2008 2014 2020
Estimated population (thousand person) 127,690 125,862 122,735
  [% of 65 years or older] 22.1% 26.2% 29.2%
Fixed model Number of stomach cancer deaths (person) 50,156 58,784 66,164
  [% of 65 years or older] 80.7% 84.7% 87.2%
Average age of death (year) 74.1 75.5 76.6
Direct cost (billion yen) 253.7 288.0 315.3
Morbidity cost (billion yen) 54.0 56.1 57.3
Mortality cost (billion yen) 806.4 833.4 851.7
  [% of 65 years or older] 42.0% 47.3% 50.0%
Mortality cost per person (million yen) 16.1 14.2 12.9
COI (billion yen) 1,114.2 1,177.4 1,224.3
Variable model Logarithm model Number of stomach cancer deaths (person) 50,156 58,554 62,868
  [% of 65 years or older] 80.7% 84.9% 87.7%
Average age of death (year) 74.1 75.6 76.9
Direct cost (billion yen) 253.7 243.8 227.9
Morbidity cost (billion yen) 54.0 49.3 42.4
Mortality cost (billion yen) 806.4 824.4 785.8
  [% of 65 years or older] 42.0% 47.5% 51.0%
Mortality cost per person (million yen) 16.1 14.1 12.5
COI (billion yen) 1,114.2 1,117.5 1,056.1
Linear model Number of stomach cancer deaths (person) 50,156 45,021 37,581
  [% of 65 years or older] 80.7% 87.1% 91.8%
Average age of death (year) 74.1 76.7 79.1
Direct cost (billion yen) 253.7 162.3 67.3
Morbidity cost (billion yen) 54.0 31.0 17.7
Mortality cost (billion yen) 806.4 557.0 357.7
  [% of 65 years or older] 42.0% 52.5% 60.7%
Mortality cost per person (million yen) 16.1 12.4 9.5
COI (billion yen) 1,114.2 750.3 442.8
Mixed model Number of stomach cancer deaths (person) 50,156 45,021 37,581
  [% of 65 years or older] 80.7% 87.1% 91.8%
Average age of death (year) 74.1 76.7 79.1
Direct cost (billion yen) 253.7 187.1 100.4
Morbidity cost (billion yen) 54.0 37.1 26.4
Mortality cost (billion yen) 806.4 557.0 357.7
  [% of 65 years or older] 42.0% 52.5% 60.7%
Mortality cost per person (million yen) 16.1 12.4 9.5
COI (billion yen) 1,114.2 781.2 484.5

Source of estimated population:2008;Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Population Estimates” 2014•2020;National Institute of Population and Social Security Research “Population Statistics of Japan”.

Haga et al.

Haga et al. BMC Health Services Research 2013 13:283   doi:10.1186/1472-6963-13-283

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