Table 1

The elements used for calculation in future prediction of Cost of illness (COI)
Model    Item Elements used for calculation Fixed or Varied
Fixed model Number of deaths Mortality rate Fixed
The population estimates Varied
Direct cost The expenses of outpatient visit and hospitalization Fixed (Calculated using the unit cost in 2008)
Total person-days of outpatient visit Varied
Total person-days of hospitalization Varied
Morbidity cost Number of times of outpatient visit per population Fixed
Number of times of hospitalization per population Fixed
Average length of stay Fixed
The population estimates varied
Labor-value Fixed (one day labor-value loss for one hospitalized day and a half day labor-value loss for one outpatient visit)
Mortality cost Number of deaths Varied
Life expectancy Fixed
Labor-value Fixed
Discount rate: 3% Fixed

Variable model

•Logarithm model

•Linear model

•Mixed model

Number of deaths Mortality rate Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)
The population estimates Varied
Direct cost The expenses of outpatient visit and hospitalization Fixed (Calculated using the unit cost in 2008)
Total person-days of outpatient visit Varied
Total person-days of hospitalization Varied
Morbidity cost Number of times of outpatient visit per population Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)(minimum value: the previous value before 0)
Number of times of hospitalization per population Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)(minimum value: the previous value before 0)
Average length of stay Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)(minimum value: 8.2days)
The population estimates Varied
Labor-value Fixed (one day labor-value loss for one hospitalized day and a half day labor-value loss for one outpatient visit)
Mortality cost Number of deaths Varied
Life expectancy Fixed
Labor-value Fixed
Discount rate: 3% Fixed

Fixed: The value of 2008 was used. Varied: The values of 2014 and 2020 were calculated based on the trend line.

Haga et al.

Haga et al. BMC Health Services Research 2013 13:283   doi:10.1186/1472-6963-13-283

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