## Table 1 |
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The elements used for calculation in future prediction of Cost of illness (COI) |
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Model |
Item |
Elements used for calculation |
Fixed or Varied |

Fixed model | Number of deaths | Mortality rate | Fixed |

The population estimates | Varied | ||

Direct cost | The expenses of outpatient visit and hospitalization | Fixed (Calculated using the unit cost in 2008) | |

Total person-days of outpatient visit | Varied | ||

Total person-days of hospitalization | Varied | ||

Morbidity cost | Number of times of outpatient visit per population | Fixed | |

Number of times of hospitalization per population | Fixed | ||

Average length of stay | Fixed | ||

The population estimates | varied | ||

Labor-value | Fixed (one day labor-value loss for one hospitalized day and a half day labor-value loss for one outpatient visit) | ||

Mortality cost | Number of deaths | Varied | |

Life expectancy | Fixed | ||

Labor-value | Fixed | ||

Discount rate: 3% | Fixed | ||

Variable model •Logarithm model •Linear model •Mixed model |
Number of deaths | Mortality rate | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula) |

The population estimates | Varied | ||

Direct cost | The expenses of outpatient visit and hospitalization | Fixed (Calculated using the unit cost in 2008) | |

Total person-days of outpatient visit | Varied | ||

Total person-days of hospitalization | Varied | ||

Morbidity cost | Number of times of outpatient visit per population | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)(minimum value: the previous value before 0) | |

Number of times of hospitalization per population | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)(minimum value: the previous value before 0) | ||

Average length of stay | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula)(minimum value: 8.2days) | ||

The population estimates | Varied | ||

Labor-value | Fixed (one day labor-value loss for one hospitalized day and a half day labor-value loss for one outpatient visit) | ||

Mortality cost | Number of deaths | Varied | |

Life expectancy | Fixed | ||

Labor-value | Fixed | ||

Discount rate: 3% | Fixed |

Fixed: The value of 2008 was used. Varied: The values of 2014 and 2020 were calculated based on the trend line.

Haga * et al.*

Haga * et al.* *BMC Health Services Research* 2013 **13**:283 doi:10.1186/1472-6963-13-283