Table 1

Parameter estimates
Model parameter Base-case value Lower and upper values in sensitivity analysis References
Performance of screening tests
gFOBT sensitivity for adenomas 11% 10%, 12%1 [13-21]
gFOBT sensitivity for CRC 36% 31%, 42%1
gFOBT specificity for adenomas and CRC 97% 96%, 98%
FIT sensitivity for adenomas 21% 19%, 22%1 [16,22-32]
FIT sensitivity for CRC 71% 67%, 75%1
FIT specificity for adenomas and CRC 95% 94%, 96%
FSIG sensitivity for low-risk distal adenomas 65% 60%, 70%1 Expert opinion informed by [18,20,22]
FSIG sensitivity for intermediate/high-risk distal adenomas 74% 68%, 78%1
FSIG sensitivity for distal CRC 90% 85%, 95%1
FSIG specificity for distal adenomas and CRC 92% 90%, 95%
Uptake and compliance with screening, diagnosis and surveillance
gFOBT uptake 53% 32%, 70% [34-37]
FIT uptake 53% 32%, 70%
FSIG uptake 39% 24%, 67% [38-40]
COL compliance (diagnostic test or adenoma surveillance) 86% - [34,35]
Performance of diagnostic tests and related parameters
COL sensitivity for low-risk adenomas 77% - [41,42]
COL sensitivity for intermediate/high-risk adenomas 98% -
COL sensitivity for CRC 98% -
COL specificity for adenomas and CRC 97% - Expert opinion
CTC sensitivity for low-risk adenomas 53% - Expert opinion, informed by [43-46]
CTC sensitivity for intermediate/high-risk adenomas 85% -
CTC sensitivity for CRC 85% -
CTC specificity for adenomas and CRC 86% -
Average number of adenomas removed per person 1.9 - [47]
% of those with intermediate/high-risk adenomas removed in whom the adenoma was high-risk 29% - [34]
Harms of screening
FSIG probability of perforation (with or without polypectomy) 0.002% - [38]
FSIG probability of death following perforation 6.452% - [48]
Probability of (major) bleeding following FSIG 0.029% - [38]
COL probability of perforation (with polypectomy) 0.216% - [49]
COL probability of perforation (without polypectomy) 0.107% -
COL probability of death following perforation 5.195% - [48]
Probability of (major) bleeding following COL 0.379% - [38]

COL colonoscopy, CRC colorectal cancer, CTC CT colonography, FIT faecal immunochemical test, gFOBT guaiac faecal occult blood test, FSIG flexible sigmoidoscopy; low-risk adenoma(s), <10 mm; intermediate/high-risk adenoma(s), ≥10 mm. 1 parameters varied simultaneously in sensitivity analysis; - parameters not varied in sensitivity analyses.

Sharp et al.

Sharp et al. BMC Health Services Research 2013 13:105   doi:10.1186/1472-6963-13-105

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