Table 4 

Summary performance statistics for false alarm rates approximating 0.005^{† }for the negative binomial cusum with an out of control state defined as 3 standard deviations greater than the mean 

Algorithm 
false alarm rate 
mean sensitivity 
Day 1 sensitivity 
Day 2 sensitivity 
Days 1–7 sensitivity 
CARL 
median timeliness^{‡} 


NBC 7day 
0.0049 
0.80 
0.2 
0.07 
0.33 
1.6 
13.0 
NBC 14day 
0.0049 
0.97 
0.2 
0.07 
0.33 
1.6 
12.0 
NBC 28day 
0.0049 
1.00 
0.27 
0.07 
0.60 
3.0 
6.0 
NBC 56day 
0.0038 
1.00 
0.27 
0.07 
0.40 
1.5 
12.0 


^{†}Test threshold that produced a false alarm rate ≤ 0.00 ^{‡}Detection on the first outbreak day is equivalent to a timeliness of 0 days CARL: Conditional Average Run Length – conditional on the detection of the outbreak during the first 7 days NBC: Negative binomial cusum 

Watkins et al. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2008 8:37 doi:10.1186/14726947837 