Table 4

Summary performance statistics for false alarm rates approximating 0.005for the negative binomial cusum with an out of control state defined as 3 standard deviations greater than the mean

Algorithm

false alarm rate

mean sensitivity

Day 1 sensitivity

Day 2 sensitivity

Days 1–7 sensitivity

CARL

median timeliness


NBC 7-day

0.0049

0.80

0.2

0.07

0.33

1.6

13.0

NBC 14-day

0.0049

0.97

0.2

0.07

0.33

1.6

12.0

NBC 28-day

0.0049

1.00

0.27

0.07

0.60

3.0

6.0

NBC 56-day

0.0038

1.00

0.27

0.07

0.40

1.5

12.0


Test threshold that produced a false alarm rate ≤ 0.00

Detection on the first outbreak day is equivalent to a timeliness of 0 days

CARL: Conditional Average Run Length – conditional on the detection of the outbreak during the first 7 days

NBC: Negative binomial cusum

Watkins et al. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2008 8:37   doi:10.1186/1472-6947-8-37

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