Table 2

The fraction of simulations (out of 1000, so the 95% confidence limit is approximately ± 0.03) in which the Page statistic (or the one-at-a-time statistic) exceeded its 2.5% false alarm threshold during the simulated outbreak for the baseline model, the baseline model with residuals modified by EWMA, the null model, and the null model with residuals modified by EWMA.

Outbreak duration

Test

Baseline

Baseline + EWMA

Null

Null + EWMA

1–10 days

Page

0.46

0.21

0.28

0.17

1–10 days

One-at-a-time

0.37

0.31

0.17

0.31

>1 day

Page

0.42

0.20

0.30

0.14

>1 day

One-at-a-time

0.31

0.25

0.13

0.26

1 day

Page

0.44

0.36

0.30

0.45

1 day

One-at-a-time

0.71

0.70

0.47

0.68

Brillman et al. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2005 5:4   doi:10.1186/1472-6947-5-4