Table 3

Predicting adverse outcome (death or institutionalization) at discharge and at one year by MAPLe-AC based on pre-morbid, admission and 7th day or discharge information in multivariate regression analyses adjusted for sex, age and reason for hospitalization

Adverse outcome at discharge

Adverse outcome at one year

Nordic hospitals, in 2000-2001

Canadian hospitals, in 2001

Nordic hospitals, in 2000-2001

n

123/640

155/238

281/492


Pre-morbid information

OR1

95% CI2

OR

95% CI

OR

95% CI


Sex (Women = 1)

1.15

0.74

1.78

0.72

0.45

1.15

0.66

0.47

0.92

Age 75-79

1.00

1.00

1.00

Age 80-84

1.21

0.66

2.21

0.92

0.48

1.78

1.02

0.66

1.58

Age 85-89

1.22

0.67

2.25

1.61

0.84

3.07

0.98

0.63

1.53

Age 90+

1.66

0.87

3.16

2.56

1.23

5.31

1.24

0.75

2.07

Reason for hospitalization

New problem

1.00

1.00

1.00

Exacerbation of existing problem

0.83

0.51

1.36

0.64

0.38

1.97

1.27

0.88

1.84

Both new and old problem

1.39

0.83

2.35

1.32

0.67

2.60

1.78

1.16

2.73

MAPLe-AC pre-morbid

Low

1.00

1.00

1.00

Mild

3.50

1.36

9.03

1.42

0.62

3.25

2.82

1.62

4.91

Moderate

8.58

4.13

17.83

2.71

1.42

5.16

3.45

2.24

5.31

High

9.39

4.50

19.57

5.15

2.75

9.66

5.03

3.21

7.88

Very high

19.31

8.13

45.87

10.79

4.66

25.00

17.25

7.99

37.20


Admission information

OR

95% CI

OR

95% CI

OR

95% CI


Sex (women = 1)

1.06

0.69

1.64

0.81

0.51

1.31

0.64

0.46

0.88

Age 75-79

1.00

1.00

1.00

Age 80-84

1.39

0.77

2.50

1.58

0.81

3.07

1.15

0.76

1.75

Age 85-89

1.23

0.68

2.23

2.34

1.11

4.92

1.03

0.67

1.59

Age 90+

1.93

1.02

3.65

0.79

0.47

1.34

1.43

0.87

2.36

Reason for hospitalization

New problem

1.00

1.00

1.00

Exacerbation of existing problem

1.04

0.65

1.67

0.79

0.47

1.34

1.47

1.03

2.11

Both new and old problem

1.60

0.96

2.67

1.77

0.88

3.55

1.97

1.30

2.99

MAPLe-AC admission

Low

1.00

1.00

1.00

Mild

1.97

0.32

12.20

0.42

0.10

1.68

0.89

0.39

2.02

Moderate

5.69

1.34

24.11

1.43

0.61

3.32

1.78

0.99

3.19

High

12.56

2.96

53.29

6.73

2.97

15.24

3.79

2.06

6.98

Very high

22.54

5.06

100.43

8.01

3.23

19.88

7.78

3.70

16.35


7th day or discharge information

OR

95% CI

OR

95% CI

OR

95% CI


Sex

1.13

0.73

1.75

0.85

0.52

1.39

0.65

0.47

0.90

Age 75-79

1.00

1.00

1.00

Age 80-84

1.27

0.70

2.33

0.88

0.44

1.77

1.08

0.70

1.65

Age 85-89

1.17

0.64

2.14

1.36

0.68

2.69

1.02

0.66

1.57

Age 90+

1.65

0.87

3.13

2.12

0.98

4.58

1.26

0.76

2.09

Reason for hospitalization

New problem

1.00

1.00

1.00

Exacerbation of existing problem

0.99

0.61

1.61

0.78

0.46

1.35

1.44

1.00

2.06

Both new and old problem

1.41

0.84

2.37

2.00

0.99

4.06

1.82

1.20

2.77

MAPLe-AC 7th day or discharge

Low

1.00

1.00

Mild

4.22

0.80

22.23

1.89

1.02

3.49

Moderate

18.06

4.29

75.99

1.00

3.30

2.01

5.43

High

25.09

5.95

105.89

4.83

2.83

8.25

5.61

3.34

9.41

Very high

51.71

11.70

228.66

11.07

5.76

21.29

8.45

4.36

16.39


Tests

Pre-morbid

Admission

7th day/discharge

Pre-morbid

Admission

7th day/discharge

Pre-morbid

Admission

7th day/discharge


R-square, %

19.9

14.7

20.3

23.4

29.5

30.1

20.5

14.6

16.1

c-statistics (AUC)

0.76

0.73

0.76

0.75

0.78

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.70


1 OR = Odds Ratio, 2 Confidence Interval

Noro et al. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2011 11:39   doi:10.1186/1472-6947-11-39

Open Data