Table 3 |
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|
Predicting adverse outcome (death or institutionalization) at discharge and at one year by MAPLe-AC based on pre-morbid, admission and 7th day or discharge information in multivariate regression analyses adjusted for sex, age and reason for hospitalization |
|||||||||
|
Adverse outcome at discharge |
Adverse outcome at one year |
||||||||
|
Nordic hospitals, in 2000-2001 |
Canadian hospitals, in 2001 |
Nordic hospitals, in 2000-2001 |
|||||||
|
n |
123/640 |
155/238 |
281/492 |
||||||
|
|
|||||||||
|
Pre-morbid information |
OR1 |
95% CI2 |
OR |
95% CI |
OR |
95% CI |
|||
|
|
|||||||||
|
Sex (Women = 1) |
1.15 |
0.74 |
1.78 |
0.72 |
0.45 |
1.15 |
0.66 |
0.47 |
0.92 |
|
Age 75-79 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
||||||
|
Age 80-84 |
1.21 |
0.66 |
2.21 |
0.92 |
0.48 |
1.78 |
1.02 |
0.66 |
1.58 |
|
Age 85-89 |
1.22 |
0.67 |
2.25 |
1.61 |
0.84 |
3.07 |
0.98 |
0.63 |
1.53 |
|
Age 90+ |
1.66 |
0.87 |
3.16 |
2.56 |
1.23 |
5.31 |
1.24 |
0.75 |
2.07 |
|
Reason for hospitalization |
|||||||||
|
New problem |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
||||||
|
Exacerbation of existing problem |
0.83 |
0.51 |
1.36 |
0.64 |
0.38 |
1.97 |
1.27 |
0.88 |
1.84 |
|
Both new and old problem |
1.39 |
0.83 |
2.35 |
1.32 |
0.67 |
2.60 |
1.78 |
1.16 |
2.73 |
|
MAPLe-AC pre-morbid |
|||||||||
|
Low |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
||||||
|
Mild |
3.50 |
1.36 |
9.03 |
1.42 |
0.62 |
3.25 |
2.82 |
1.62 |
4.91 |
|
Moderate |
8.58 |
4.13 |
17.83 |
2.71 |
1.42 |
5.16 |
3.45 |
2.24 |
5.31 |
|
High |
9.39 |
4.50 |
19.57 |
5.15 |
2.75 |
9.66 |
5.03 |
3.21 |
7.88 |
|
Very high |
19.31 |
8.13 |
45.87 |
10.79 |
4.66 |
25.00 |
17.25 |
7.99 |
37.20 |
|
|
|||||||||
|
Admission information |
OR |
95% CI |
OR |
95% CI |
OR |
95% CI |
|||
|
|
|||||||||
|
Sex (women = 1) |
1.06 |
0.69 |
1.64 |
0.81 |
0.51 |
1.31 |
0.64 |
0.46 |
0.88 |
|
Age 75-79 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
||||||
|
Age 80-84 |
1.39 |
0.77 |
2.50 |
1.58 |
0.81 |
3.07 |
1.15 |
0.76 |
1.75 |
|
Age 85-89 |
1.23 |
0.68 |
2.23 |
2.34 |
1.11 |
4.92 |
1.03 |
0.67 |
1.59 |
|
Age 90+ |
1.93 |
1.02 |
3.65 |
0.79 |
0.47 |
1.34 |
1.43 |
0.87 |
2.36 |
|
Reason for hospitalization |
|||||||||
|
New problem |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
||||||
|
Exacerbation of existing problem |
1.04 |
0.65 |
1.67 |
0.79 |
0.47 |
1.34 |
1.47 |
1.03 |
2.11 |
|
Both new and old problem |
1.60 |
0.96 |
2.67 |
1.77 |
0.88 |
3.55 |
1.97 |
1.30 |
2.99 |
|
MAPLe-AC admission |
|||||||||
|
Low |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
||||||
|
Mild |
1.97 |
0.32 |
12.20 |
0.42 |
0.10 |
1.68 |
0.89 |
0.39 |
2.02 |
|
Moderate |
5.69 |
1.34 |
24.11 |
1.43 |
0.61 |
3.32 |
1.78 |
0.99 |
3.19 |
|
High |
12.56 |
2.96 |
53.29 |
6.73 |
2.97 |
15.24 |
3.79 |
2.06 |
6.98 |
|
Very high |
22.54 |
5.06 |
100.43 |
8.01 |
3.23 |
19.88 |
7.78 |
3.70 |
16.35 |
|
|
|||||||||
|
7th day or discharge information |
OR |
95% CI |
OR |
95% CI |
OR |
95% CI |
|||
|
|
|||||||||
|
Sex |
1.13 |
0.73 |
1.75 |
0.85 |
0.52 |
1.39 |
0.65 |
0.47 |
0.90 |
|
Age 75-79 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
||||||
|
Age 80-84 |
1.27 |
0.70 |
2.33 |
0.88 |
0.44 |
1.77 |
1.08 |
0.70 |
1.65 |
|
Age 85-89 |
1.17 |
0.64 |
2.14 |
1.36 |
0.68 |
2.69 |
1.02 |
0.66 |
1.57 |
|
Age 90+ |
1.65 |
0.87 |
3.13 |
2.12 |
0.98 |
4.58 |
1.26 |
0.76 |
2.09 |
|
Reason for hospitalization |
|||||||||
|
New problem |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
||||||
|
Exacerbation of existing problem |
0.99 |
0.61 |
1.61 |
0.78 |
0.46 |
1.35 |
1.44 |
1.00 |
2.06 |
|
Both new and old problem |
1.41 |
0.84 |
2.37 |
2.00 |
0.99 |
4.06 |
1.82 |
1.20 |
2.77 |
|
MAPLe-AC 7th day or discharge |
|||||||||
|
Low |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|||||||
|
Mild |
4.22 |
0.80 |
22.23 |
1.89 |
1.02 |
3.49 |
|||
|
Moderate |
18.06 |
4.29 |
75.99 |
1.00 |
3.30 |
2.01 |
5.43 |
||
|
High |
25.09 |
5.95 |
105.89 |
4.83 |
2.83 |
8.25 |
5.61 |
3.34 |
9.41 |
|
Very high |
51.71 |
11.70 |
228.66 |
11.07 |
5.76 |
21.29 |
8.45 |
4.36 |
16.39 |
|
|
|||||||||
|
Tests |
Pre-morbid |
Admission |
7th day/discharge |
Pre-morbid |
Admission |
7th day/discharge |
Pre-morbid |
Admission |
7th day/discharge |
|
|
|||||||||
|
R-square, % |
19.9 |
14.7 |
20.3 |
23.4 |
29.5 |
30.1 |
20.5 |
14.6 |
16.1 |
|
c-statistics (AUC) |
0.76 |
0.73 |
0.76 |
0.75 |
0.78 |
0.78 |
0.73 |
0.69 |
0.70 |
|
|
|||||||||
|
1 OR = Odds Ratio, 2 Confidence Interval |
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|
Noro et al. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2011 11:39 doi:10.1186/1472-6947-11-39 |
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