Dynamics predicted by non-linear SETAR model and linear model. Predicted dynamics were calculated from the full models in Table 1 using one seed density estimates from 1960 and the observed climate and pack time series (one step ahead simulations). (a). Dynamics predicted by SETAR model with winter snow accumulation, SWt, as a covariate. (b). Dynamics predicted by linear model with the number of packs, PAt-i, and the Northern Hemisphere winter temperature anomaly, Tt, as covariates. (c). Predicted versus observed values for the non-linear model. (d). Predicted versus observed values for the linear model.
Ellis and Post BMC Ecology 2004 4:2 doi:10.1186/1472-6785-4-2