Table 1

Probability values for low (first value) and high rainfall years (second value) for climate change scenarios: increase in precipitation (1); decrease in precipitation (2); increase in inter-annual variation of precipitation (3); increase in temporal auto-correlation of precipitation (4) with 'good' phase (4a) and 'poor' phase (4b). Columns indicate 20%, 60% and 100% variation in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall years, respectively, as compared to the standard scenario (Plow = 0.15, Paverage = 0.72, Phigh = 0.13).

Scenarios / Variation

20 %

60 %

100 %


(1)

Plow

0.150

0.150

0.150

Phigh

0.156

0.208

0.260

(2)

Plow

0.180

0.240

0.300

Phigh

0.130

0.130

0.130

(3)

Plow

0.180

0.240

0.300

Phigh

0.156

0.208

0.260

(4a) 'good' phase

Plow

0.120

0.060

0.000

Phigh

0.156

0.208

0.260

(4b) 'poor' phase

Plow

0.180

0.240

0.300

Phigh

0.104

0.052

0.000


Tews and Jeltsch BMC Ecology 2004 4:17   doi:10.1186/1472-6785-4-17

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