Table 1 |
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|
Probability values for low (first value) and high rainfall years (second value) for climate change scenarios: increase in precipitation (1); decrease in precipitation (2); increase in inter-annual variation of precipitation (3); increase in temporal auto-correlation of precipitation (4) with 'good' phase (4a) and 'poor' phase (4b). Columns indicate 20%, 60% and 100% variation in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall years, respectively, as compared to the standard scenario (Plow = 0.15, Paverage = 0.72, Phigh = 0.13). |
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|
Scenarios / Variation |
20 % |
60 % |
100 % |
|
|
|
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|
(1) |
Plow |
0.150 |
0.150 |
0.150 |
|
Phigh |
0.156 |
0.208 |
0.260 |
|
|
(2) |
Plow |
0.180 |
0.240 |
0.300 |
|
Phigh |
0.130 |
0.130 |
0.130 |
|
|
(3) |
Plow |
0.180 |
0.240 |
0.300 |
|
Phigh |
0.156 |
0.208 |
0.260 |
|
|
(4a) 'good' phase |
Plow |
0.120 |
0.060 |
0.000 |
|
Phigh |
0.156 |
0.208 |
0.260 |
|
|
(4b) 'poor' phase |
Plow |
0.180 |
0.240 |
0.300 |
|
Phigh |
0.104 |
0.052 |
0.000 |
|
|
|
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|
Tews and Jeltsch BMC Ecology 2004 4:17 doi:10.1186/1472-6785-4-17 |
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