Figure 3.

Posterior estimate of surgical pathology outcome derived from prior knowledge of EIS result (EIS level of suspicion of 4 – likely to be malignant), ultrasound finding of solid thyroid nodule, and indeterminate FNA cytology. Changing the EIS result from highly unlikely to be malignant (LOS 2) to Level of Suspicion of (likely to be malignant) increases the posterior probability of malignancy from 15% to 65% (red ellipses).