Table 2

Odds Ratio for Fracture, Indirect Treatment Comparison Results of Drug versus Placebo Classical and Bayesian analysis

Classical analysis

Non-vertebral fracture

Vertebral fracture

Hip fracture

Wrist fracture


Drug vs placebo

OR (95% Cr I)

Placebo

rate

OR (95% Cr I)

Placebo

rate

OR (95% Cr I)

Placebo

rate

OR (95% Cr I)

Placebo

rate


Alendronate

0.80 (0.68, 0.95)

11.1%

0.51 (0.40, 0.63)

6.7%

0.62 (0.40, 0.96)

1.1%

0.44 (0.30, 0.67)

3.0%


Denosumab

0.80 (0.67, 0.96)

7.5%

0.31 (0.24, 0.40)

7.2%

0.60 (0.37, 0.98)

1.1%

NR

NR


Etidronate

0.64 (0.31, 1.32)

11.5%

0.59 (0.32, 1.10)

9.7%

0.60 (0.14, 2.66)

2.1%

1.19 (0.37, 3.80)

2.2%


Ibandronate

0.88 (0.71, 1.10)

7.5%

0.49 (0.32, 0.73)

7.5%

NR

NR

NR

NR


Raloxifene

0.91 (0.77, 1.07)

9.3%

0.63 (0.50, 0.78)

10.1%

1.12 (0.64, 1.95)

0.7%

0.88 (0.67, 1.15)

3.3%


Risedronate

0.79 (0.69, 0.89)

10.1%

0.59 (0.47, 0.75)

13.3%

0.74 (0.58, 0.94)

2.8%

0.71 (0.56, 0.89)

3.4%


Strontium

0.85 (0.74 (0.98)

14.7%

0.58 (0.50, 0.67)

21.7%

0.66 (1.19)

4.0%

1.59 (1.12, 2.27)

3.2%


Teriparatide

0.62 (0.40, 0.97)

9.7%

0.31 (0.19, 0.52)

14.3%

0.50 (0.09, 2.75)

0.7%

0.50 (0.09, 2.75)

2.4%


Zoledronic Acid

0.74 (0.63, 0.86)

10.0%

0.28 (0.22, 0.35)

10.9%

0.59 (0.83)

2.3%

NR

NR


All drugs vs placebo

0.81 (0.77, 0.86)

10.5%

0.49 (0.41, 0.58)

11.0%

0.73 (0.63, 0.84)

1.9%

0.82 (0.71, 0.94)

3.1%


Bayesian analysis

Non-vertebral fracture

Vertebral fracture

Hip fracture

Wrist fracture


Drug vs placebo

OR (95% Cr I)

Prob

Effect

size

OR (95% Cr I)

Prob

Effect

size

OR (95% Cr I)

Prob

Effect

size

OR (95% Cr I)

Prob

Effect

size


Alendronate

0.81 (0.66, 0.96)

0.01

16.1

0.51 (0.37, 0.68)

< 0.01

25.3

0.59 (0.29, 0.99)

0.10

9.49

0.93 (0.30, 2.64)

0.10

1.80


Denosumab

0.80 (0.60, 1.06)

0.03

10.7

0.31 (0.21, 0.44)

0.20

53.6

0.67 (0.24, 1.47)

0.12

4.76

NR

NR

NR


Etidronate

0.64 (0.31, 1.27)

0.42

6.4

0.61 (0.29, 1.08

0.01

8.3

1.02 (0.12, 3.91)

0.19

1.01

2.42 (0.25, 10.54)

0.06

0.16


Ibandronate

0.90 (0.69, 1.16)

< 0.01

9.3

0.50 (0.29, 0.78)

0.01

16.1

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR


Raloxifene

0.91 (0.69, 1.20)

< 0.01

8.4

0.63 (0.43, 0.90)

0.00

13.4

1.29 (0.45, 2.88)

0.01

1.25

1.76 (0.09, 8.22)

0.15

0.27


Risedronate

0.77 (0.60, 0.91)

0.04

16.4

0.60 (0.45, 0.79)

0.00

19.3

0.78 (0.44, 1.32)

0.01

5.71

0.91 (0.13, 3.27)

0.22

1.37


Strontium

0.86 (0.69, 1.07)

< 0.01

12.0

0.59 (0.45, 0.76)

< 0.01

21.8

0.98 (0.39, 2.01)

0.01

2.47

3.25 (0.17, 14.89)

0.06

0.08


Teriparatide

0.62 (0.38, 1.02)

0.41

9.9

0.32 (0.17, 0.57)

0.30

29.8

0.71 (0.04, 2.90)

0.44

1.93

1.23 (0.05, 5.64)

0.41

0.57


Zoledronic Acid

0.74 (0.56, 0.97)

0.08

12.9

0.28 (0.19, 0.40)

0.40

66.2

0.65 (0.25, 1.34)

0.11

5.53

NR

NR

NR


OR (95% Cr I): Odds ratio (95% Credibility Interval). Prob: probability of that drug being most efficacious.

Effect size evaluated as Odds ratio divided by corresponding standard error. NR: Not reported.

Hopkins et al. BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders 2011 12:209   doi:10.1186/1471-2474-12-209

Open Data