Table 3

The potential measles outbreak size (000s) by age group, under four scenarios of under-estimation of vaccine coverage.

Age group

Assumed level of under-estimation in vaccine coverage*

20%

30%

40%

50%


0–4 years

22.7

13.0

5.9

1.3

5–10 years

49.9

26.8

11.3

2.2

11–17 years

39.3

22.3

9.5

1.8

18–24 years

3.3

2.0

0.9

0.2

25 years+

9.9

5.8

2.7

0.6

Overall

125.2

70.1

30.6

6.3

In London

105.8

61.8

29.6

6.3


* The proportion of children recorded as unvaccinated who had received one dose and the proportion of children recorded as having received a single dose who had received two doses was assumed to be 20%, 30%, 40% or 50%.

Choi et al. BMC Public Health 2008 8:338   doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-338

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