The median (line within the shaded box), 25th and 75th percentile values (top and bottom of shaded box), and upper and lower adjacent values (error bars) proportion of the Canadian population expected to require antiviral treatment (Y-axis) during a severe pandemic as a function of viral transmissibility and the magnitude of change maintained for 12 weeks. Each box represents 9 individual simulation runs using a range of pre-existing immunity values from 0-40%. We examined three different levels of behaviour change uptake where between 31% and 81% of the Canadian population engages in social distancing behaviour. The magnitude of the behaviour change ranged from only a 7% reduction in contacts to a 69% reduction in contacts for all scenarios.
Greer BMC Public Health 2013 13:669 doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-669