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Open Access Research article

Forecast analysis of the incidence of tuberculosis in the province of Quebec

Alexander Klotz1, Abdoulaye Harouna1 and Andrew F Smith12*

Author affiliations

1 Medmetrics Inc, Suite # 215, 925 De Maisonneuve Avenue West, Montreal, QC H3A 0A5, Canada

2 Adjunct Professor (Health Economics), McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

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Citation and License

BMC Public Health 2013, 13:400  doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-400

Published: 27 April 2013

Abstract

Background

While the overall population prevalence of tuberculosis in Quebec has been declining for many years, tuberculosis is still disproportionately more prevalent among the immigrant and Inuit communities. As such, the aim of this study was to forecast the incidence of tuberculosis in the Province of Quebec over time in order to examine the possible impact of future preventative and treatment programs geared to reducing such disparities.

Methods

A compartmental differential equation based on a Susceptible Exposed Latent Infectious Recovered (SELIR) model was simulated using the Euler method using Visual Basic for Applications in Excel. Demographic parameters were obtained from census data for the Province of Quebec and the model was fitted to past epidemiological data to extrapolate future values over the period 2015 to 2030.

Results

The trend of declining tuberculosis rates will continue in the general population, falling by 42% by 2030. The incidence among immigrants will decrease but never vanish, and may increase in the future. Among the Inuit, the incidence is expected to increase, reaching a maximum and then stabilizing, although if re-infection is taken into account it may continue to increase. Tuberculosis among non-indigenous Canadian born persons will continue to decline, with the disease almost eradicated in that group in the mid 21st century.

Conclusions

While the incidence of tuberculosis in the Province of Quebec is expected to decrease overall, certain populations will remain at risk.

Keywords:
Tuberculosis; Epidemiology; Forecasting; Quebec