Table 3

Attack Rates* of Novel Influenza with Transmissibility of R0 = 1.2, 1.6, and 2.0 without School Closure (baseline) and under Five Types of State School Closure Authority
School Closure Authority Closure Threshold Closure Duration Attack Rates *
R0=1.2 R0=1.6 R0=2.0
Baseline None None 20% 36% 47%
TYPE I 1% statewide prevalence, 1-day implementation 1 week 19% 36% 46%
2 weeks 19% 36% 46%
4 weeks 19% 35% 45%
8 weeks 14% 33% 43%
16 weeks 2% 27% 43%
TYPE I variation 0.1% statewide prevalence 8 weeks 16% 35% 43%
10% statewide prevalence 8 weeks 12% 31% 44%
TYPE II 5 cases per school 1 week 19% 36% 47%
2 weeks 19% 36% 46%
4 weeks 19% 35% 44%
8 weeks 14% 32% 43%
16 weeks 2% 27% 43%
TYPE III 1% prevalence, 3-day delay 8 weeks 14% 32% 43%
1% prevalence, 5-day delay 8 weeks 13% 31% 44%
1% prevalence, 10-day delay 8 weeks 10% 33% 46%
TYPE IV Random, 1–3 cases per school 8 weeks 16% 32% 43%
Random, 1–5 cases per school 8 weeks 15% 32% 43%
Random, 1–10 cases per school 8 weeks 16% 32% 43%
TYPE V 5 cases per school Random, re-open 1–3 days before 8 weeks 15% 32% 43%
5 cases per school Random, re-open 1–10 days before 8 weeks 17% 33% 43%
5 cases per school Random, re-open 1–20 days before 8 weeks 18% 33% 43%
5 cases per school Random, re-open 1–30 days before 8 weeks 18% 33% 44%

*Infected and symptomatic individuals as a percentage of total population.

Potter et al.

Potter et al. BMC Public Health 2012 12:977   doi:10.1186/1471-2458-12-977

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