Fig. 5.

Contour maps of the pigs-to-human contact transmissibility (γp) versus the super-transmissibility in humans (βh,2)(A) The figure shows maximum number of super-strain over 200 years. The largest outbreaks occur when 2.3 <R0 < 3.8 (0.24 <βh,2 < 0.4). (B) The figure shows the sum of yearly average super-strain cases over 200 years. The two maximal states occur when 2.5 <R0 < 3.0 (0.26 <βh,2 < 0.32) and 4.0 <R0 < 4.5 (0.42 <βh,2 < 0.48). (C) The figure shows the sum of yearly average super-strain cases over 500 years. The long-term cumulative incidence of a super-strain is highest when either: 1.9 <R0 < 3.0, or 0 <R0 < 1.9 and a specified range of interaction for the given R0. (D) The figure shows the sum of yearly average super-strain cases over 1000 years. The long-term cumulative incidence of a super-strain is highest when either: 1.9 <R0 < 3.0, or 0 <R0 < 1.9 and a specified range of interaction for the given R0.

Coburn et al. BMC Public Health 2011 11(Suppl 1):S6   doi:10.1186/1471-2458-11-S1-S6