Table 5

Sensitivity analysis: number of cases avoided for the different boys and girls vaccination strategies versus boys and girls base case analysis (vaccine coverage rate: 70%, lifelong protection) and the corresponding relative reductions
Absolute reduction (increase) of remaining cases (n) versus base case GNV vaccination strategy Relative reduction (increase) of remaining cases (%) versus base case GNV vaccination strategy
Duration of protection Lifetime 32 years
Coverage rate 50% 90% 70% 50% 90%
Vaccination strategy B C D E F B C D E F
Female Genital warts 40,271 −24,568 68,313 108,009 38,674 160.6 −98.0 272.5 430.8 154.3
Cervical cancer 3,212 −1,692 5,685 8,853 3,092 148.4 −78.2 262.7 409.1 142.9
Vulvar cancer 337 −158 568 925 285 130.3 −61.2 219.5 357.4 110.1
Vaginal cancer 139 −63 236 388 116 140.3 −63.7 238.2 392.2 117.6
Anal cancer 357 −192 598 978 300 104.6 −56.3 175.1 286.4 88.0
Head/neck cancer 305 −163 504 832 250 104.6 −55.9 173.0 285.3 85.6
Total cancers 4,351 −2,269 7,591 11,976 4,044 137.9 −71.9 240.6 379.6 128.2
Male Genital warts 49,534 −34,444 77,279 122,846 43,104 140.6 −97.8 219.3 348.6 122.3
Penile cancers 155 −124 237 358 130 44.1 −35.2 67.3 101.6 37.0
Anal cancers 225 −129 351 576 173 98.0 −56.0 152.7 250.6 75.1
Head/neck cancer 1,669 −931 2,636 4,331 1,306 108.6 −60.6 171.5 281.8 85.0
Total cancers 2,050 −1,184 3,224 5,264 1,609 96.7 −55.9 152.2 248.5 75.9
Female + Male Genital warts 89,805 −59,013 145,592 230,855 81,778 148.9 −97.9 241.4 382.8 135.6
Total cancers 6,400 −3,453 10,815 17,240 5,653 121.4 −65.5 205.1 326.9 107.2

HPV, human papillomavirus.

Negative values mean a reduction of the number of HPV burden of the disease and positive values mean an increase of the burden compared with base case boys and girls vaccination strategy (GNV).

Marty et al.

Marty et al. BMC Cancer 2013 13:10   doi:10.1186/1471-2407-13-10

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