Post-test probabilities for diagnosis of sCJD. Point estimates (closed circles for a positive test result; vertical bars for a negative test result) and 95% credible intervals (horizontal bars) of post-test probabilities for a diagnosis of sCJD are plotted for various CSF markers and cutoff thresholds. For each estimate, Bayes' theorem was applied to CSF marker assay results, and 95% credible intervals were estimated by modeling on a beta distribution using the software Post_Test_Probabilities. Pre-test probability of sCJD (based on sCJD prevalence in the overall study population) and 95% confidence interval are indicated by the open circle and the horizontal bar. Cutoff thresholds used are listed on the left.
Coulthart et al. BMC Neurology 2011 11:133 doi:10.1186/1471-2377-11-133