Table 3

The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the risk factors.

Risk factors that were present

Presented within the first 2 days of febrile illness

Presented on the 3rd or later day of febrile illness



Sensitivity

Specificity

PPV

NPV

Sensitivity

Specificity

PPV

NPV



Both peak temperature ≥ 38.5°C and history of lethargy

28% (48/174)

[23–33%]

89% (125/140)

[86–92%]

76% (48/63)

[71–81%]

50%

(125/251)

[44–56%]

22%

(17/76)

[15–29%]

89% (41/46)

[83–95%]

77% (17/22)

[70–84%]

41%

(41/100)

[32–50%]



Peak temperature ≥ 38.5°C &/or history of lethargy

86% (150/174)

[82–90%]

43% (60/140)

[38–48%]

65% (150/230)

[60–70%]

71%

(60/84)

[66–76%]

75%

(57/76)

[67–83%]

59% (27/46)

[50–68%]

75% (57/76)

[67–83%]

59%

(27/46)

[50–68%]


(%, proportion, [95% confidence interval]) in predicting CSF pleocytosis in the 436 children with suspected CNS involvement seen in the 2006 outbreak

Note:

CSF: Cerebrospinal fluid

CNS: Central nervous system

Sensitivity = The proportion of children with CSF pleocytosis that are correctly identified by the presence of the risk factors

Specificity = The proportion of children without CSF pleocytosis that are correctly identified by the absence of the risk factors

Positive predictive value (PPV) = The proportion of individuals with the risk factors that have CSF pleocytosis

Negative predictive value (NPV) = The proportion of individuals without the risk factors that do not have CSF pleocytosis

Ooi et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2009 9:3   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-9-3

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