Table 1 |
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|
Parameter estimates used in the scenario tree analysis of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in Australia |
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|
Node |
Category |
Probability or proportion |
|
|
||
|
Jurisdiction |
ACT |
0.016 |
|
NSW |
0.330 |
|
|
NT |
0.010 |
|
|
QLD |
0.197 |
|
|
SA |
0.076 |
|
|
TAS |
0.024 |
|
|
VIC |
0.248 |
|
|
WA |
0.099 |
|
|
Age |
<5 years |
|
|
ACT |
0.062 |
|
|
NSW |
0.064 |
|
|
NT |
0.082 |
|
|
QLD |
0.066 |
|
|
SA |
0.058 |
|
|
TAS |
0.060 |
|
|
VIC |
0.062 |
|
|
WA |
0.064 |
|
|
5 to <15 years |
||
|
ACT |
0.129 |
|
|
NSW |
0.134 |
|
|
NT |
0.165 |
|
|
QLD |
0.141 |
|
|
SA |
0.128 |
|
|
TAS |
0.137 |
|
|
VIC |
0.131 |
|
|
WA |
0.139 |
|
|
Proportion immune |
Immune |
|
|
<5 years |
(0.85,0.91,0.95)† |
|
|
5 to <15 years |
(0.81,0.87,0.91)† |
|
|
15+ years |
(0.75,0.80,0.85)† |
|
|
Infection status |
Infected |
0.00001 |
|
Acute Flaccid Paralysis |
Yes |
|
|
<5 years |
(0.001,0.005,0.01)† |
|
|
5 to <15 years |
(0.005,0.01,0.02)† |
|
|
15+ years |
(0.005,0.01,0.02)† |
|
|
Notified |
Yes |
|
|
ACT |
Beta(1.3,61931.7)‡ |
|
|
NSW |
Beta(18.5,1298900.5) |
|
|
NT |
Beta(2.2,47604.8)‡ |
|
|
QLD |
Beta(11.3,806522.7)‡ |
|
|
SA |
Beta(2.7,280823.3)‡ |
|
|
TAS |
Beta(1.7,94022.3)‡ |
|
|
VIC |
Beta(6.2,950388.8)‡ |
|
|
WA |
Beta(2.7,396433.3)‡ |
|
|
Stool sample |
Yes |
|
|
ACT |
Beta(2,2) |
|
|
NSW |
Beta(23,84) |
|
|
NT |
Beta(1,8) |
|
|
QLD |
Beta(29,35) |
|
|
SA |
Beta(3,9) |
|
|
TAS |
Beta(2,4) |
|
|
VIC |
Beta(10,23) |
|
|
WA |
Beta(4,8) |
|
|
Test |
Positive |
(0.95,0.97,0.99)† |
|
|
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|
†Beta-PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) distribution (lower, most likely, upper) ‡Calculated as the ratio of this beta distribution divided by 10-5, with the result constrained to have an upper limit of 1. |
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|
Watkins et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2009 9:162 doi:10.1186/1471-2334-9-162 |
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