Baseline scenario, no vaccination (R0, max = 1.5 and GI = 2). Dynamics of the pandemic starting from Mexico City, in late March 2009, in the absence of preventive and control measures. The upper panel represents average daily incidences for Northern (green), Southern (blue), tropical (black) and all (red) cities. Plain lines correspond to means and dashed lines (for the global curve only) to .05 and .95 pointwise quantiles calculated on 500 simulation runs. The lower panel illustrates the spread of the virus through the 52 cities of the network; the predicted probability of influenza activity is represented for each city (from 0 (white) to 1 (black)).
Flahault et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2009 9:129 doi:10.1186/1471-2334-9-129