Table 3

Epidemiologic Natural History Model Parameters

Parameter

Estimate


Progression in the presence of HPV 16/18, % per year

Normal to CIN1[43]

9.4

Normal to CIN 1 to CIN 2 [41,43]

5.8

Normal to CIN 1 to CIN 2 to CIN 3 [41,43]

3.5

CIN1 to CIN 2*

13.6

CIN 2 to CIN3 (severe dysplasia) [49,65]

14.0

CIN 3 (severe dysplasia) to CIN 3 (CIS) [49,68]

43.0

CIN 3 (CIS) to LCC

4.1

LCC to RCC [7,9,22,23]

10.0

RCC to DCC [22]

30.0

Progression in the presence of HPV 6/11, % per year

Normal to CIN1 [43]

8.5

Normal to CIN 1 to CIN 2 [43]

1.9

Normal to CIN 1 to CIN 2 to CIN 3 [43,78,79]

0.0

CIN 1 to CIN2 *

0.0

Normal to genital warts [41]

57

Mean HPV infection duration with CIN absent, years

HPV 16/18 infection [42]

1.2

HPV 6/11 infection [42]

0.7

Duration of acquired immunity following HPV infection

10 years to Lifelong

Regression of HPV 16/18+ disease, % per year

CIN1 to Negative/HPV 16/18 [40]*

32.9

CIN 2 to Negative/HPV 16/18 [49,65,85]

21.0

CIN 2 to CIN 1 [65]

13.3

CIN 3 (severe dysplasia) to Negative/HPV 16/18 [49]

11.0

CIN 3 (severe dysplasia) to CIN 1 [49,65]

3.0

CIN 3 (severe dysplasia) to CIN 2 [49,65]

3.0

Regression of HPV 6/11+ disease, % per year

CIN1 to Negative/HPV 6/11*

55.2

Genital warts to Negative/HPV 6/11 [41,88]

87.5

Age and stage-specific cervical cancer mortality, 1997–2002, % per year [69]

for LCC

15–29 years

0.7

30–39 years

0.6

40–49 years

0.8

50–59 years

1.9

60–69 years

4.2

≥ 70 years

11.6

for RCC

15–29 years

13.4

30–39 years

8.9

40–49 years

11.0

50–59 years

10.1

60–69 years

17.6

≥ 70 years

28.6

for DCC

15–29 years

42.9

30–39 years

41.0

40–49 years

46.7

50–59 years

52.7

60–69 years

54.6

≥ 70 years

70.3


CIN = cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; CIS = carcinoma in situ; DCC = distant cervical cancer; HPV = human papillomavirus; LCC = localized cervical cancer; RCC = regional cervical cancer

*R. Insinga, unpublished data.

Insinga et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2009 9:119   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-9-119

Open Data