Table 3 |
|||||||||
|
Sensitivity analysis of estimated attack rates (AR) among children. |
|||||||||
|
Most likely scenario |
Scenario 1 |
Scenario 2 |
Scenario 3 |
Scenario 4 |
Scenario 5 |
Scenario 6 |
Scenario 7 |
Scenario 8 |
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
Total number of visitors |
3000 |
2000 |
2000 |
2000 |
2000 |
5000 |
5000 |
5000 |
5000 |
|
% adult visitors |
83% |
60% |
60% |
90% |
90% |
60% |
60% |
90% |
90% |
|
Number of adult visitors at farmers market |
2490 |
1200 |
1200 |
1800 |
1800 |
3000 |
3000 |
4500 |
4500 |
|
Estimated AR (adults) |
20% |
15% |
30% |
15% |
30% |
15% |
30% |
15% |
30% |
|
Estimated number of ill adults |
498 |
180 |
360 |
270 |
540 |
450 |
900 |
675 |
1350 |
|
Number of reported adults |
291 |
291 |
291 |
291 |
291 |
291 |
291 |
291 |
291 |
|
Proportion of reported adults |
58% |
100% |
81% |
100% |
54% |
65% |
32% |
43% |
22% |
|
Number of children at farmers market |
510 |
800 |
800 |
200 |
200 |
2000 |
2000 |
500 |
500 |
|
Number of reported children |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
|
Estimated number of ill children |
14 |
8 |
10 |
8 |
15 |
12 |
25 |
19 |
37 |
|
Estimated AR (children) |
2,7% |
1,0% |
1,2% |
4,0% |
7,4% |
0,6% |
1,2% |
3,7% |
7,4% |
|
Estimated total diseased |
512 |
299 |
370 |
299 |
555 |
462 |
925 |
694 |
1387 |
|
|
|||||||||
|
The total number of visitors (line 1) is varied between 2000 and 5000, the proportion of adult visitors (line 2) is varied between 60% and 90% and the estimated AR among adults (line 4) is varied between 15% and 30% yielding 8 different scenarios; for further comments on calculation steps: see text. |
|||||||||
|
Porten et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2006 6:147 doi:10.1186/1471-2334-6-147 |
|||||||||
