Table 3

Estimate of the future incidence of vCJD (2003–2080) compared to the UK. Mean and 95% confidence intervals in brackets.

Fit to UK vCJD case data alone

Fit to UK vCJD case data and UK prevalence data simultaneously

Republic of Ireland

0.8 (0–15)

2 (0–46)

UK

40 (9–540)

100 (10–2,600)

Fit of the model (-2LnL)

17.84

26.3

Harney et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2003 3:28   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-3-28