Open Access Research article

The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile

Gerardo Chowell12*, Sherry Towers13, Cécile Viboud2, Rodrigo Fuentes4, Viviana Sotomayor4, Lone Simonsen25, Mark A Miller2, Mauricio Lima6, Claudia Villarroel7, Monica Chiu4, Jose E Villarroel4 and Andrea Olea4

Author Affiliations

1 Mathematical, Computational & Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

2 Division of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA

3 Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA

4 Department of Epidemiology, Ministerio de Salud, Santiago, Chile

5 Department of Global Health, School of Public Health and Health Services, George Washington University, Washington DC, USA

6 Center for Advanced Studies in Ecology and Biodiversity, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

7 Applied Meteorology, Dirección Meteorológica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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BMC Infectious Diseases 2012, 12:298  doi:10.1186/1471-2334-12-298

Published: 13 November 2012

Additional files

Additional file 1:

Table S1. Timeline of events relevant to the detection, control, and school activities during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Chile. Figure S1. Daily average minimum temperature in northern, central and southern regions of Chile. The northern geographic area comprises the 5 northernmost regions of: 1) Arica y Parinacota, 2) Tarapacá, 3) Antofagasta, 4) Atacama, and 5) Coquimbo; the broad central area includes the regions of 1) Valparaíso, 2) Metropolitana, 3) O’Higgins, and 4) Maule; and the broad southern geographic area includes the southernmost regions of 1) Bíobío, 2) Araucanía, 3) Los Ríos, 4) Los Lagos, 5) Aysén, and 6) Magallanes. Figure S2. Pandemic peak timing based on weekly time series of influenza-like-illness (ILI) cases for 29 Chilean ILI sentinel sites of Chile during 52 epidemiological weeks in 2009 as reported to the Chilean Ministry of Health and shown in geographic order from north (top) to south (bottom). We found a significant shift in the peak timing from southern to northern provinces (Spearman rho = 0.43, P = 0.02). Provinces from north to south: Arica, Iquique, Antofagasta, Atacama, Coquimbo, Valparaíso - San Antonio, Viña del Mar - Quillota, Aconcagua, Metropolitano Norte, Metropolitano Occidente, Metropolitano Central, Metropolitano Oriente, Metropolitano Sur, Metropolitano Sur Oriente, O'Higgins, Maule, Ñuble, Concepción, Talcahuano, Bio Bio, Arauco, Araucanía Norte, Araucanía Sur, Valdivia, Osorno, Del Reloncaví, Aysén, Magallanes, Chiloé. Figure S3. Weekly number of consolidated influenza-like-illness (ILI) cases in northern, central and southern geographic regions of Chile in 2009. The northern region is comprised by provinces: Arica, Iquique, Antofagasta, Atacama, Coquimbo; central region provinces: Valparaíso - San Antonio, Viña del Mar - Quillota, Aconcagua, Metropolitano Norte, Metropolitano Occidente, Metropolitano Central, Metropolitano Oriente, Metropolitano Sur, Metropolitano Sur Oriente, O'Higgins, Maule; southern region provinces: Ñuble, Concepción, Talcahuano, Bio Bio, Arauco, Araucanía Norte, Araucanía Sur, Valdivia, Osorno, Del Reloncaví, Aysén, Magallanes, Chiloé.

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Estimation of the reproduction number.

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