Table 3

Resulting incidence from simulations of scenarios.

Year

Simulated incidence

RS*

P1

P2

P3

P4

P5

2010

1.61423

1.76164

1.62148

1.7568

1.8583

2.18211

-

9.13% ↑

0.45% ↑

8.83% ↑

15.12% ↑

35.18% ↑

2015

1.69397

1.77855

1.68189

1.75922

1.87763

2.15311

-

4.99% ↑

0.71% ↓

3.85% ↑

10.84% ↑

27.1% ↑

2020

1.73505

1.79063

1.50065

1.56831

1.84138

2.0057

-

3.2% ↑

13.51% ↓

9.61% ↓

6.13% ↑

15.6% ↑

2025

1.60215

1.77855

1.54657

1.57556

1.59248

1.71331

-

11.01% ↑

3.47% ↓

1.66% ↓

0.6% ↓

6.94% ↑

2030

1.63356

1.81238

1.44991

1.40399

1.52482

1.64081

-

10.95% ↑

11.24% ↓

14.05% ↓

6.66% ↓

0.44% ↑

2035

1.5804

1.76647

1.16476

1.41124

1.42816

1.66739

-

11.77% ↑

26.3% ↓

10.7% ↓

9.63% ↓

5.5% ↑

2040

1.59973

1.64564

1.14059

1.3025

1.37016

1.57556

-

2.87% ↑

28.7% ↓

18.58% ↓

14.35% ↓

1.51%↓

Data points of incidence, taken at 5-year intervals after 2005 from the results of scenarios simulations, are listed and compared. In each year the incidence resulting from every prediction scenario is compared percentagewise to that of the reference scenario (*), respectively.

Mei et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2011 11:118   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-11-118