Table 1

Model parameters, together with baseline value and range if varied during analysis.

Parameter

Description

Value (Range)

Refs


gE

Rate of transition from latent to prodromal

1/12 days-1

[14]


gP

Rate of transition from prodromal to infectious

1/2.5 days-1

[15]


gI

Rate of transition from infectious to removed

1/8.6 days-1

[16]


δ

Case fatality risk

30%

[23,33]


θ

Probability of case isolation success

90%

[21]


gQ

Rate of transition from isolated to removed

1/20 days-1

[5]


ϵ

Probability of contact tracing success

80%

[5]


ϵ1

Vaccine efficacy when susceptible

97.5%

[14]


ϵ2

Vaccine efficacy when latent

30%

[23]


gO

Rate of transition from observed to removed or vaccinated

1/15 days-1

[5]


γ

Proportion of population contraindicated for mass vaccination

30%

[25]


E0

Number of index cases

10

see text


Number of index cases for secondary outbreak

1

see text


Itrig

Number of clinical cases prior to detection

4

see text


Number of clinical cases prior to detection for secondary outbreak

1

see text


δV

Vaccine fatality risk

10-5(0 -- 10-5)

[24]


R0

Basic reproductive ratio

5 (3 -- 7)

[14]


RP

Prodromal type reproductive ratio

0.5 (0.1 -- 1.5)

[15,17]


κ

Movement reductions when infectious

0.9 (0 -- 1)

[5]


v

Rate of mass vaccination

N/7 (see Figure 3(c))

see text


N

Population size of region

105(see Figure 3(a))

[28,29]


ξ

Region outwardness

0.4 (see Figure 3(d))

[27,30]


M

Number of regions of same type as outbreak region

n/a (see Figure 3(a))

[28,29]


M0

Number of regions at relevant scale initially infected

1 (1 -- 10)

see text


n

Neighbourhood size (contacts per individual)

17 (5 -- 50)

[18,19]


ϕ

Clustering coefficient

0 (0 -- 0.5)

see text


Either references are given, or the parameter value is discussed in the main text. Values referenced to [5] are typically also based on expert opinion from discussions with the Department of Health. [34] provides an example of the considerations involved in estimating these values

House et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2010 10:25   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-25

Open Data