Open Access Highly Accessed Research article

Mapping the risk of avian influenza in wild birds in the US

Trevon L Fuller1*, Sassan S Saatchi12, Emily E Curd13, Erin Toffelmier1, Henri A Thomassen1, Wolfgang Buermann14, David F DeSante5, Mark P Nott5, James F Saracco5, CJ Ralph6, John D Alexander7, John P Pollinger1 and Thomas B Smith13

Author Affiliations

1 Center for Tropical Research, Institute of the Environment, University of California, Los Angeles, La Kretz Hall, Suite 300, Box 951496, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496, USA

2 Radar Science Technical Group, Radar Science & Engineering Section, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USA

3 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, 621 Charles E. Young Drive South, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1606, USA

4 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565, USA

5 The Institute for Bird Populations, P.O. Box 1346, Point Reyes Station, CA 94956-1346, USA

6 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Redwood Sciences Laboratory, 1700 Bayview Drive, Arcata, CA 95521, USA

7 Klamath Bird Observatory, P.O. Box 758, Ashland, OR 97520, USA

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BMC Infectious Diseases 2010, 10:187  doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-187

Published: 23 June 2010

Additional files

Additional file 1:

Influenza samples from wild birds used in the study. This file provides a detailed description of the geographical study region and lists the online databases from which we obtained samples in addition to the samples tested at the UCLA Center for Tropical Research.

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Additional file 2:

Description of the samples by species. The table in this file reports the prevalence of flu in the 225 avian species analyzed in this study, which represent 11 orders of birds.

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Additional file 3:

Formulation of the spatial regression model. This file explains how we constructed the semivariogram in the spatial regression model, provides a mathematical formulation of the model, and explains how we fitted the model.

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Additional file 4:

Geographic locations of AIV-positive samples in the contiguous US (n = 325). This file contains a map showing the bird banding stations where wild birds tested positive for AIV.

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Additional file 5:

Probability of AIV occurrence in US counties or county equivalents. This file consists of a map constructed by modifying the spatial model to generate probabilistic predictions about the influenza in wild birds, which are restricted to being between zero and one, rather than estimates of the number of influenza cases, which range from zero cases to 76 cases per county.

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Additional File 6:

Hotspots of swine production and AIV cases in wild birds in the contiguous US. This file shows the overlap between areas with intensive swine production in the US and areas in which we predict high prevalence of AIV in wild birds. Reassortment between avian and swine influenza viruses may be more common in such areas.

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