Table 3

Expected numbers (from model with maximum likelihood parameter estimates) and observed numbers of persons reporting symptoms in each of the three waves

POPULATION

N

SAW

SA -

S -W

S - -

-AW

- A -

- - W

- - -


South Shields

462

0.08

0.00

0.90

1.00

1.73

1.00

12.73

12.00

2.26

3.00

24.30

24.00

33.25

31.00

386.74

390.00


Leicester

4619

1.02

2.00

16.75

14.00

27.80

22.00

271.80

287.00

37.40

37.00

613.20

609.00

314.53

323.00

3336.50

3325.00


Wigan

1075

0.02

1.00

0.69

0.00

1.99

0.00

46.64

44.00

1.74

2.00

73.84

79.00

99.85

117.00

850.23

832.00


Newcastle

4461

0.41

2.00

5.26

2.00

33.22

39.00

237.09

234.00

16.55

17.00

211.94

208.00

322.86

326.00

3633.67

3633.00


Manchester

4686

1.84

3.00

66.94

67.00

23.49

26.00

619.65

613.00

10.49

11.00

381.88

392.00

80.22

73.00

3501.50

3501.00


Blackburn

1284

0.37

1.00

5.34

7.00

11.64

6.00

104.12

97.00

5.63

10.00

81.97

72.00

84.54

83.00

990.39

1008.00


Widnes

3417

0.40

0.00

10.66

14.00

25.40

21.00

382.55

388.00

9.84

8.00

261.65

266.00

346.08

340.00

2380.43

2380.00


London police

746

0.18

0.00

5.81

4.00

1.82

0.00

41.69

46.00

3.49

5.00

115.47

108.00

16.96

24.00

560.58

559.00


Cambridge Uni

1766

3.00

8.00

44.08

33.00

33.42

17.00

341.88

365.00

25.59

38.00

375.38

368.00

135.31

130.00

807.33

807.00


Clifton College

451

14.43

13.00

19.26

9.00

73.26

71.00

51.85

69.00

38.87

61.00

51.88

38.00

86.61

85.00

114.84

105.00


Haileybury

515

8.98

10.00

27.38

31.00

45.68

22.00

96.60

117.00

19.19

25.00

58.47

48.00

87.76

106.00

170.94

156.00


Finchley School

1224

0.28

0.00

18.05

18.00

2.41

5.00

111.70

111.00

5.68

4.00

372.76

383.00

26.62

29.00

686.50

674.00


TOTAL

24706

31.01

40.00

221.12

200.00

281.88

230.00

2318.31

2383.00

176.70

221.00

2622.77

2595.00

1634.57

1667.00

17419.64

17370.00


As before, SAW denotes the number of persons reporting symptoms in each of the summer, autumn and winter waves. S - - denotes the number with symptoms only in the summer wave ....etc. The expected numbers are based on the maximum likelihood parameter estimates for the 12 population model (simulation 1; results from simulation 2 are almost identical). The deviance corresponding to the MLE fit was 47182. It can be seen that the fit between observed and expected is less good for three of the "school" populations, reflecting their somewhat different behaviour (see also Table S2 in Additional File 1).

Mathews et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2010 10:128   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-128

Open Data