# Table 4

Area under the ROC curve (95% Confidence Intervals) for models of one-year outcomes, comparing frailty measures
Model Death1 Hospitalization2 Move to Long-Term care1
1 Sex and age 0.638 (0.592-0.683) 0.531 (0.495-0.566) 0.552 (0.510-0.593)
2 Sex, age, and co-morbidity 0.652 (0.607-0.698) 0.592 (0.558-0.627) 0.554 (0.512-0.596)
3 Sex, age, co-morbidity, and Armstrong Index 0.683 (0.639-0.728) 0.609 (0.575-0.643) 0.638 (0.598-0.678)
4 Sex, age, co-morbidity, and Full Frailty Index 0.691 (0.648-0.733) 0.610 (0.576-0.644) 0.667 (0.625-0.707)3
5 Sex, age, co-morbidity, and CHS Frailty Criteria4 0.701 (0.655-0.747) 0.629 (0.592-0.665) 0.610 (0.564-0.656)
6 Sex, age, co-morbidity, and CHESS Scale 0.683 (0.640-0.725) 0.610 (0.576-0.645) 0.602 (0.558-0.646)

Note:

1. Models 3–6 differed from models 1 and 2 for outcomes of death and long-term care. All p-value less than 0.03.

2. For hospitalization outcome, models 3, 4, and 6 differed from model 1 (p <; .001 for all), and model 5 differed from both models 1 and 2 (p <; .001, p = .003), respectively).

3. For long-term care, model 4 differed from models 5 (p = .003), 6 (p = .016), and marginally with model 3 (p = .087).

4. All pair-wise comparisons involving model 5 are based on n = 927 residents; otherwise, n = 1066 residents. The relevant AUC (95%CIs) estimates for Models 1 and 2 for n = 927 residents are as follows:

Death: Model 1, 0.649 (0.600-0.698); Model 2, 0.670 (0.622-0.719).

Hospitalization: Model 1, 0.520 (0.481-0.558); Model 2, 0.598 (0.561-0.635).

Long-Term Care: Model 1, 0.552 (0.506-0.598); Model 2, 0.552 (0.506-0.598).

Hogan et al.

Hogan et al. BMC Geriatrics 2012 12:56   doi:10.1186/1471-2318-12-56