Table 1 

Simplified calculation of foodborne disease incidence. 

Infectious Agent 
Estimated Total Cases 
Observed Cases 
Estimated % Foodborne Transmission 
Foodborne Incidence 


Campylobacter spp 
2,453,926 
64,577 
80 
1,963,141 
Salmonella, nontyphoidal 
1,412,498 
37,171 
95 
1,341,873 
Norwalklike viruses 
23,000,000 
40 
9,200,000 

Other 
11,763,217 
1,309,910 

Total for Known Pathogens 
38,629,641 
13,814,924 



Multiplier, observed to total cases 
38.0 

Total cases of gastroenteritis 
210,813,750 

of unknown origin (subtract) 
172,184,109 

Illness of known etiology, % foodborne (divide) 
36% 

Foodborne illness, unknown etiology (multiply) 
61,986,279 

Total foodborne illness (not rounded) 
75,801,203 



Boldface = parameters with uncertainty distributions in the example. Italics = input parameters (other numbers are calculated within model) An downloadable interactive version of this calculation, which can be used to run the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate total uncertainty, can be accessed via a link in the text. 

Phillips and LaPole BMC Medical Research Methodology 2003 3:9 doi:10.1186/1471228839 