Table 1

Simplified calculation of foodborne disease incidence.

Infectious Agent

Estimated Total Cases

Observed Cases

Estimated %

Foodborne Transmission

Foodborne Incidence


Campylobacter spp

2,453,926

64,577

80

1,963,141

Salmonella, nontyphoidal

1,412,498

37,171

95

1,341,873

Norwalk-like viruses

23,000,000

40

9,200,000

Other

11,763,217

1,309,910

Total for Known Pathogens

38,629,641

13,814,924


Multiplier, observed to total cases

38.0

Total cases of gastroenteritis

210,813,750

of unknown origin (subtract)

172,184,109

Illness of known etiology, % foodborne (divide)

36%

Foodborne illness, unknown etiology (multiply)

61,986,279

Total foodborne illness (not rounded)

75,801,203


Boldface = parameters with uncertainty distributions in the example. Italics = input parameters (other numbers are calculated within model) An downloadable interactive version of this calculation, which can be used to run the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate total uncertainty, can be accessed via a link in the text.

Phillips and LaPole BMC Medical Research Methodology 2003 3:9   doi:10.1186/1471-2288-3-9

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