Table 1 |
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|
Simplified calculation of foodborne disease incidence. |
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|
Infectious Agent |
Estimated Total Cases |
Observed Cases |
Estimated % Foodborne Transmission |
Foodborne Incidence |
|
|
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|
Campylobacter spp |
2,453,926 |
64,577 |
80 |
1,963,141 |
|
Salmonella, nontyphoidal |
1,412,498 |
37,171 |
95 |
1,341,873 |
|
Norwalk-like viruses |
23,000,000 |
40 |
9,200,000 |
|
|
Other |
11,763,217 |
1,309,910 |
||
|
Total for Known Pathogens |
38,629,641 |
13,814,924 |
||
|
|
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|
Multiplier, observed to total cases |
38.0 |
|||
|
Total cases of gastroenteritis |
210,813,750 |
|||
|
of unknown origin (subtract) |
172,184,109 |
|||
|
Illness of known etiology, % foodborne (divide) |
36% |
|||
|
Foodborne illness, unknown etiology (multiply) |
61,986,279 |
|||
|
Total foodborne illness (not rounded) |
75,801,203 |
|||
|
|
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|
Boldface = parameters with uncertainty distributions in the example. Italics = input parameters (other numbers are calculated within model) An downloadable interactive version of this calculation, which can be used to run the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate total uncertainty, can be accessed via a link in the text. |
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|
Phillips and LaPole BMC Medical Research Methodology 2003 3:9 doi:10.1186/1471-2288-3-9 |
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