Table 2

Local test of support for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) models of shifts in environmental conditions

Clade

sqrt (Altitude)

ln (Precipitation)

ln (Emberger Index)

minimum Temperature

maximum Temperature


error = 0


1

0.337/0.662/<0.001

0.097/0.857/0.046

0.149/0.845/0.006

0.062/0.376/0.562

0.165/0.835/<0.001

2

0.107/0.891/0.001

0.876/0.117/0.006

0.842/0.157/0.001

0.141/0.344/0.514

0.161/0.839/<0.001

3

0.157/0.842/0.001

0.565/0.413/0.022

0.895/0.104/<0.001

0.041/0.385/0.574

0.105/0.895/<0.001

4

0.519/0.481/<0.001

0.090/0.864/0.047

0.099/0.894/0.006

0.040/0.385/0.575

0.308/0.692/<0.001

5

0.093/0.906/0.001

0.394/0.575/0.031

0.440/0.556/0.004

0.984/0.006/0.009

0.145/0.855/<0.001


error = estimated squared standard error


1

0.021/0.010/0.970

0.043/0.361/0.596

0.037/0.206/0.757

0.048/0.010/0.942

<0.001/0.006/0.994

2

0.022/0.010/0.968

0.567/0.163/0.270

0.276/0.155/0.570

0.006/0.010/0.984

0.001/0.006/0.993

3

0.011/0.010/0.980

0.179/0.309/0.511

0.180/0.175/0.645

0.002/0.010/0.988

<0.001/0.006/0.994

4

0.134/0.009/0.857

0.038/0.363/0.600

0.023/0.209/0.768

0.002/0.010/0.988

0.002/0.006/0.992

5

0.001/0.010/0.989

0.148/0.321/0.531

0.075/0.198/0.727

1.000/<0.001/<0.001

0.001/0.006/0.993


For each variable, 7 models were evaluated: five dual-equilibrium O-U models corresponding to a single change in environment at the base of each of the five indicated clades; the single-equilibrium O-U model, in which all clades are modelled as occurring in a single environment; and the Brownian motion (constant variance) model. Values in each cell are Bayes information criterion (BIC) weights for: the dual-equilibrium O-U model/the single-equilibrium O-U model/the Brownian motion model. The first value is interpreted as the posterior probability that the origins of the clade were associated with a shift in environmental parameters. Measurement error for the lower portion of the table was estimated as indicated in the text.

Lumbsch et al. BMC Evolutionary Biology 2008 8:257   doi:10.1186/1471-2148-8-257

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