Table 3

Estimates of viral diversity close to the time of transmission

Patient
Best-fitting demographic model
μa
Nτ b
Nτ close to transmissionc









Meand
HPDe upper

Horizontal transmission









p1
Logistic
0.0123
2293
36.00
153.19
p2
Logistic
0.0166
4441
27.98
148.32
p3
Logistic
0.0175
1612
29.02
80.12
p5
Exponential
0.0223
2439
287.78
670.67
p6
Logistic
0.0195
1511
7.86
20.39
p7
Logistic
0.0085
8632
253.78
1173.95
p8
Exponential
0.0162
6003
1722.98
2911.65
p9
Logistic
0.0071
7168
1283.11
3211.35
p11
Logistic
0.0128
6505
9.76
34.48
Mean

0.0148
4512
406.47
933.79






Vertical transmission









p1
Logistic
0.0201
4183
15.48
79.99
p2
Constant
0.0560
275
275.46
511.97
p3
Constant
0.0163
383
383.27
714.69
p4
Exponential
0.0098
67696
1214.76
5810.63
p5
Exponential
0.0133
7372
1360.46
3444.98
p6
Constant
0.0251
183
181.98
323.10
p7
Exponential
0.0226
1165
151.26
294.62
p8
Constant
0.0145
521
521.84
857.01
p9
Exponential
0.0120
2740
191.34
405.22
p10
Logistic
0.0188
1050
384.47
877.21
p11
Logistic
0.0163
740
410.67
926.82
p12
Exponential
0.0206
1730
121.83
254.40
p13
Exponential
0.0218
2603
81.27
173.89
p14
Exponential
0.0164
1865
208.00
411.70
p15
Logistic
0.0397
889
1.55
4.80
p16
Logistic
0.0173
269904
261.90
577.67
p18
Logistic
0.0097
146723
960.34
1978.63
p19
Exponential
0.0095
2842
342.42
655.38
p21
Exponential
0.0053
302840
1712.90
4936.78
p22
Exponential
0.0046
547670
3159.60
11050.00
p23
Logistic
0.0093
123360
371.85
706.09
p24
Logistic
0.0102
97018
524.69
814.59
p25
Logistic
0.0071
2508
2194.63
4321.04
pa
Constant
0.0280
640
638.53
895.76
pb
Constant
0.0076
2006
2000.48
3593.83
pc
Constant
0.0094
879
879.45
1626.67
pd
Constant
0.0146
254
254.26
526.95
Mean

0.0169
58890
696.47
1732.39

aSubstitution rate in number of changes per site per year

bProduct of the effective population size and generation time in days at the most recent time point

cSeroconversion or birth for horizontally and vertically infected patients respectively

dMean of the marginal posterior probability distribution of parameter values

eHighest Posterior Density

Edwards et al. BMC Evolutionary Biology 2006 6:28   doi:10.1186/1471-2148-6-28