Table 1

Hypothesized outcomes on cladogenic rates caused by major geological and climatic events documented in the region.

Abiotic event

Time period

Predictions and expectations

Reference

Establishment of freshwater systems in Chile

~ 9.0 Ma

Origins and initial diversification

Basal nodes date to this period

[12,21]

Dramatic increase in sea-levels

4.3 - 5.3 Ma

Increased cladogenic events

Significant shifts in cladogenic rates (Yule two rate or rate-variable birth-death)

[24]

Dramatic decrease in sea-levels

1.4 - 2.2 Ma

Decreased cladogenic events

Significant shifts in cladogenic rates (Yule two rate or rate-variable birth-death)

[24]

Late Pleistocene climate oscillations

(Driver of speciation)

1.0 - 0.1 Ma

Increase in cladogenic events

Majority of cladogenic events date to this period

&

Significant shifts in cladogenic rates (Yule two rate or rate-variable birth-death)

[25,26]

Late Pleistocene climate oscillations

(Increased extinction)

1.0 - 0.1 Ma

Decline in cladogenic rates

Few cladogenic events date to this period

&

Decline in cladogenic rates (density dependent model [logistic or exponential] of diversification)

[25-27,53]

No impact

Throughout

No change in cladogenic rates

Constant cladogenesis models: yule pure-birth or pure-birth

Barber et al. BMC Evolutionary Biology 2011 11:343   doi:10.1186/1471-2148-11-343